옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 31일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $175.88 | 3.21% | $170.23 | $181.53 |
| XLF | $56.31 | 1.45% | $55.49 | $57.13 |
| XLE | $59.62 | 2.78% | $57.96 | $61.28 |
| XLV | $162.57 | 1.42% | $160.26 | $164.88 |
| XLI | $182.66 | 1.45% | $180.01 | $185.31 |
| XLY | $109.41 | 2.27% | $106.93 | $111.89 |
| XLP | $84.13 | 1.56% | $82.82 | $85.44 |
| XLU | $46.29 | 1.51% | $45.59 | $46.99 |
| XLB | $51.26 | 1.77% | $50.35 | $52.17 |
| XLC | $106.30 | 2.04% | $104.13 | $108.47 |
(Stock Price : 07/24/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $100.15 | 11.76% | $88.37 | $111.93 |
| AAPL | $333.02 | 3.64% | $320.90 | $345.14 |
| ADBE | $225.11 | 4.46% | $215.07 | $235.15 |
| ADI | $371.86 | 5.02% | $353.19 | $390.53 |
| ALAB | $291.58 | 11.33% | $258.54 | $324.62 |
| AMD | $521.95 | 7.68% | $481.86 | $562.04 |
| AMZN | $232.11 | 6.10% | $217.95 | $246.27 |
| ANET | $173.99 | 6.20% | $163.20 | $184.78 |
| APLD | $27.19 | 13.97% | $23.39 | $30.99 |
| APP | $391.98 | 6.44% | $366.74 | $417.22 |
| ARM | $260.01 | 13.02% | $226.16 | $293.86 |
| ASML | $1,757.09 | 5.88% | $1,653.77 | $1,860.41 |
| ASST | $11.49 | 8.21% | $10.55 | $12.43 |
| ASTS | $56.20 | 8.98% | $51.15 | $61.25 |
| AVGO | $381.92 | 4.85% | $363.40 | $400.44 |
| BABA | $112.14 | 3.97% | $107.69 | $116.59 |
| BBAI | $2.76 | 14.45% | $2.36 | $3.16 |
| BE | $184.89 | 22.76% | $142.81 | $226.97 |
| BIDU | $105.34 | 4.29% | $100.82 | $109.86 |
| BLSH | $23.96 | 9.89% | $21.59 | $26.33 |
| BMNR | $15.79 | 7.87% | $14.55 | $17.03 |
| CEG | $274.35 | 4.38% | $262.33 | $286.37 |
| CIEN | $390.96 | 8.55% | $357.53 | $424.39 |
| CIFR | $23.15 | 11.82% | $20.41 | $25.89 |
| CLS | $305.28 | 11.53% | $270.08 | $340.48 |
| CLSK | $14.52 | 8.98% | $13.22 | $15.82 |
| CMCSA | $22.30 | 3.32% | $21.56 | $23.04 |
| COF | $202.84 | 3.19% | $196.37 | $209.31 |
| COHR | $282.39 | 9.67% | $255.08 | $309.70 |
| COIN | $158.29 | 9.14% | $143.82 | $172.76 |
| CRCL | $62.36 | 8.65% | $56.97 | $67.75 |
| CRDO | $213.15 | 10.64% | $190.47 | $235.83 |
| CRM | $163.66 | 4.42% | $156.43 | $170.89 |
| CRSP | $46.54 | 6.23% | $43.64 | $49.44 |
| CRWD | $183.28 | 5.66% | $172.91 | $193.65 |
| CRWV | $71.88 | 9.65% | $64.94 | $78.82 |
| CVNA | $60.46 | 11.36% | $53.59 | $67.33 |
| DDOG | $246.86 | 6.73% | $230.25 | $263.47 |
| DELL | $437.50 | 7.55% | $404.47 | $470.53 |
| DG | $117.23 | 3.41% | $113.23 | $121.23 |
| DUOL | $122.24 | 6.08% | $114.81 | $129.67 |
| ETN | $404.07 | 6.02% | $379.74 | $428.40 |
| FIG | $21.12 | 8.68% | $19.29 | $22.95 |
| GDX | $75.23 | 3.84% | $72.34 | $78.12 |
| GE | $353.73 | 3.06% | $342.91 | $364.55 |
| GEV | $1,014.75 | 5.77% | $956.20 | $1,073.30 |
| GLW | $146.65 | 10.64% | $131.05 | $162.25 |
| GOOG | $319.09 | 2.99% | $309.55 | $328.63 |
| HIMS | $28.09 | 8.79% | $25.62 | $30.56 |
| HOOD | $94.91 | 9.71% | $85.69 | $104.13 |
| INOD | $55.89 | 7.99% | $51.42 | $60.36 |
| INTC | $92.32 | 8.60% | $84.38 | $100.26 |
| IONQ | $32.84 | 8.31% | $30.11 | $35.57 |
| IREN | $37.07 | 12.00% | $32.62 | $41.52 |
| IWM | $291.17 | 1.98% | $285.40 | $296.94 |
| JOBY | $6.93 | 7.12% | $6.44 | $7.42 |
| LAC | $2.81 | 7.97% | $2.59 | $3.03 |
| LAES | $2.43 | 7.46% | $2.25 | $2.61 |
| LITE | $762.99 | 9.94% | $687.15 | $838.83 |
| LLY | $1,196.03 | 2.91% | $1,161.23 | $1,230.83 |
| LMND | $60.14 | 13.01% | $52.32 | $67.96 |
| LRCX | $305.21 | 10.87% | $272.03 | $338.39 |
| LULU | $114.28 | 4.21% | $109.47 | $119.09 |
| LUNR | $12.92 | 10.07% | $11.62 | $14.22 |
| MARA | $12.12 | 8.49% | $11.09 | $13.15 |
| META | $595.19 | 7.15% | $552.63 | $637.75 |
| MP | $41.30 | 6.23% | $38.73 | $43.87 |
| MRVL | $194.23 | 9.07% | $176.61 | $211.85 |
| MSFT | $381.70 | 6.12% | $358.34 | $405.06 |
| MSTR | $91.67 | 7.98% | $84.35 | $98.99 |
| MU | $920.95 | 9.97% | $829.13 | $1,012.77 |
| NBIS | $187.77 | 14.95% | $159.70 | $215.84 |
| NEE | $89.78 | 2.30% | $87.72 | $91.84 |
| NFLX | $70.09 | 3.04% | $67.96 | $72.22 |
| NNE | $15.59 | 8.71% | $14.23 | $16.95 |
| NOK | $9.10 | 6.45% | $8.51 | $9.69 |
| NOW | $98.78 | 5.70% | $93.15 | $104.41 |
| NVDA | $206.84 | 3.85% | $198.88 | $214.80 |
| NVO | $48.77 | 3.49% | $47.07 | $50.47 |
| OKLO | $40.25 | 8.43% | $36.86 | $43.64 |
| ONDS | $7.80 | 9.38% | $7.07 | $8.53 |
| OPEN | $3.84 | 8.46% | $3.52 | $4.16 |
| ORCL | $114.99 | 6.36% | $107.68 | $122.30 |
| PFE | $24.54 | 1.86% | $24.08 | $25.00 |
| PL | $20.47 | 8.51% | $18.73 | $22.21 |
| PLTR | $122.92 | 4.86% | $116.95 | $128.89 |
| POET | $6.89 | 10.78% | $6.15 | $7.63 |
| PONY | $7.13 | 7.46% | $6.60 | $7.66 |
| QBTS | $16.21 | 8.64% | $14.81 | $17.61 |
| QQQ | $684.23 | 2.70% | $665.76 | $702.70 |
| QS | $4.89 | 7.53% | $4.52 | $5.26 |
| QUBT | $7.43 | 7.27% | $6.89 | $7.97 |
| RBLX | $47.55 | 12.63% | $41.54 | $53.56 |
| RCAT | $7.64 | 9.57% | $6.91 | $8.37 |
| RDDT | $168.73 | 11.19% | $149.85 | $187.61 |
| RDW | $8.69 | 9.03% | $7.91 | $9.47 |
| RGTI | $14.15 | 8.04% | $13.01 | $15.29 |
| RKLB | $63.91 | 8.26% | $58.63 | $69.19 |
| SERV | $4.81 | 8.91% | $4.38 | $5.24 |
| SHOP | $113.75 | 5.43% | $107.57 | $119.93 |
| SMCI | $30.10 | 8.33% | $27.59 | $32.61 |
| SMR | $8.09 | 8.23% | $7.42 | $8.76 |
| SNDK | $1,436.56 | 12.31% | $1,259.72 | $1,613.40 |
| SNOW | $268.06 | 6.00% | $251.98 | $284.14 |
| SO | $97.25 | 5.27% | $92.12 | $102.38 |
| SOFI | $16.46 | 8.81% | $15.01 | $17.91 |
| SOUN | $6.16 | 6.76% | $5.74 | $6.58 |
| SOXX | $527.01 | 6.52% | $492.65 | $561.37 |
| SPCX | $115.07 | 8.99% | $104.73 | $125.41 |
| SPY | $738.93 | 1.51% | $727.77 | $750.09 |
| TE | $5.00 | 11.52% | $4.42 | $5.58 |
| TEM | $42.69 | 8.78% | $38.94 | $46.44 |
| TER | $349.92 | 13.60% | $302.33 | $397.51 |
| TLN | $359.90 | 5.71% | $339.35 | $380.45 |
| TSLA | $313.03 | 4.84% | $297.88 | $328.18 |
| TSM | $403.41 | 5.08% | $382.92 | $423.90 |
| TTD | $17.29 | 5.85% | $16.28 | $18.30 |
| U | $28.62 | 6.56% | $26.74 | $30.50 |
| UMAC | $19.36 | 9.95% | $17.43 | $21.29 |
| UNH | $420.74 | 2.62% | $409.72 | $431.76 |
| UPST | $26.93 | 6.90% | $25.07 | $28.79 |
| USAR | $14.15 | 8.50% | $12.95 | $15.35 |
| UUUU | $11.30 | 7.94% | $10.40 | $12.20 |
| VRT | $290.36 | 10.19% | $260.77 | $319.95 |
| VST | $163.38 | 4.50% | $156.03 | $170.73 |
| VXX | $22.36 | 5.27% | $21.18 | $23.54 |
| WDC | $519.80 | 10.41% | $465.69 | $573.91 |
| WMT | $109.47 | 2.24% | $107.02 | $111.92 |
| WULF | $18.46 | 9.91% | $16.63 | $20.29 |
(Stock Price : 07/24/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.