옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 6월 18일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $184.80 | 3.11% | $179.05 | $190.55 |
| XLF | $53.34 | 1.59% | $52.49 | $54.19 |
| XLE | $57.55 | 2.42% | $56.16 | $58.94 |
| XLV | $153.81 | 1.26% | $151.87 | $155.75 |
| XLI | $176.18 | 1.85% | $172.92 | $179.44 |
| XLY | $116.60 | 2.03% | $114.23 | $118.97 |
| XLP | $85.82 | 1.27% | $84.73 | $86.91 |
| XLU | $44.53 | 1.34% | $43.93 | $45.13 |
| XLB | $52.18 | 2.21% | $51.03 | $53.33 |
| XLC | $111.65 | 1.41% | $110.08 | $113.22 |
(Stock Price : 06/12/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $169.05 | 11.72% | $149.24 | $188.86 |
| AAPL | $291.13 | 2.14% | $284.90 | $297.36 |
| ADBE | $204.02 | 3.58% | $196.72 | $211.32 |
| ADI | $417.79 | 4.14% | $400.49 | $435.09 |
| ALAB | $367.15 | 9.22% | $333.30 | $401.00 |
| AMD | $511.57 | 6.51% | $478.27 | $544.87 |
| AMZN | $238.55 | 2.91% | $231.61 | $245.49 |
| ANET | $163.24 | 4.97% | $155.13 | $171.35 |
| APLD | $42.70 | 8.36% | $39.13 | $46.27 |
| APP | $496.77 | 5.78% | $468.06 | $525.48 |
| ARM | $380.81 | 9.22% | $345.70 | $415.92 |
| ASML | $1,863.55 | 4.70% | $1,775.96 | $1,951.14 |
| ASST | $15.15 | 6.73% | $14.13 | $16.17 |
| ASTS | $82.41 | 11.70% | $72.77 | $92.05 |
| AVGO | $382.07 | 4.26% | $365.79 | $398.35 |
| BABA | $112.82 | 3.62% | $108.74 | $116.90 |
| BBAI | $4.02 | 6.87% | $3.74 | $4.30 |
| BE | $260.22 | 8.79% | $237.35 | $283.09 |
| BIDU | $115.77 | 4.53% | $110.53 | $121.01 |
| BLSH | $27.21 | 6.34% | $25.48 | $28.94 |
| BMNR | $16.11 | 6.33% | $15.09 | $17.13 |
| CEG | $253.76 | 4.06% | $243.46 | $264.06 |
| CIEN | $445.98 | 7.02% | $414.67 | $477.29 |
| CIFR | $24.50 | 9.31% | $22.22 | $26.78 |
| CLS | $393.12 | 6.59% | $367.21 | $419.03 |
| CLSK | $16.48 | 7.59% | $15.23 | $17.73 |
| CMCSA | $24.50 | 3.16% | $23.73 | $25.27 |
| COF | $184.73 | 2.90% | $179.37 | $190.09 |
| COHR | $385.03 | 8.13% | $353.73 | $416.33 |
| COIN | $159.78 | 5.85% | $150.43 | $169.13 |
| CRCL | $77.84 | 6.99% | $72.40 | $83.28 |
| CRDO | $250.81 | 9.73% | $226.41 | $275.21 |
| CRM | $165.89 | 3.83% | $159.54 | $172.24 |
| CRSP | $49.80 | 5.09% | $47.27 | $52.33 |
| CRWD | $682.80 | 4.47% | $652.28 | $713.32 |
| CRWV | $100.55 | 8.04% | $92.47 | $108.63 |
| CVNA | $64.10 | 5.98% | $60.27 | $67.93 |
| DDOG | $229.90 | 5.14% | $218.08 | $241.72 |
| DELL | $395.57 | 6.11% | $371.40 | $419.74 |
| DG | $114.80 | 3.14% | $111.20 | $118.40 |
| DUOL | $122.63 | 6.15% | $115.09 | $130.17 |
| ETN | $391.39 | 3.41% | $378.04 | $404.74 |
| FIG | $18.54 | 6.79% | $17.28 | $19.80 |
| GDX | $80.03 | 4.20% | $76.67 | $83.39 |
| GE | $335.30 | 3.08% | $324.97 | $345.63 |
| GEV | $940.66 | 4.09% | $902.19 | $979.13 |
| GLW | $179.20 | 6.84% | $166.94 | $191.46 |
| GOOG | $358.16 | 2.83% | $348.02 | $368.30 |
| HIMS | $26.82 | 7.14% | $24.91 | $28.73 |
| HOOD | $93.19 | 6.14% | $87.47 | $98.91 |
| INOD | $100.90 | 8.49% | $92.33 | $109.47 |
| INTC | $124.57 | 8.07% | $114.52 | $134.62 |
| IONQ | $57.85 | 8.35% | $53.02 | $62.68 |
| IREN | $59.77 | 8.92% | $54.44 | $65.10 |
| IWM | $292.95 | 2.09% | $286.83 | $299.07 |
| JOBY | $9.15 | 6.36% | $8.57 | $9.73 |
| LAC | $4.55 | 6.05% | $4.27 | $4.83 |
| LAES | $3.10 | 8.19% | $2.85 | $3.35 |
| LITE | $921.56 | 8.24% | $845.62 | $997.50 |
| LLY | $1,133.00 | 2.81% | $1,101.16 | $1,164.84 |
| LMND | $57.49 | 5.61% | $54.26 | $60.72 |
| LRCX | $366.81 | 6.55% | $342.78 | $390.84 |
| LULU | $118.77 | 3.66% | $114.42 | $123.12 |
| LUNR | $26.62 | 9.60% | $24.06 | $29.18 |
| MARA | $14.08 | 7.20% | $13.07 | $15.09 |
| META | $566.98 | 3.02% | $549.86 | $584.10 |
| MP | $57.55 | 6.18% | $53.99 | $61.11 |
| MRVL | $279.70 | 9.37% | $253.49 | $305.91 |
| MSFT | $390.74 | 2.80% | $379.80 | $401.68 |
| MSTR | $123.97 | 6.58% | $115.81 | $132.13 |
| MU | $981.61 | 8.74% | $895.82 | $1,067.40 |
| NBIS | $232.36 | 9.82% | $209.54 | $255.18 |
| NEE | $85.99 | 2.03% | $84.24 | $87.74 |
| NFLX | $80.34 | 2.63% | $78.23 | $82.45 |
| NNE | $23.18 | 7.97% | $21.33 | $25.03 |
| NOK | $14.80 | 6.98% | $13.77 | $15.83 |
| NOW | $102.15 | 5.29% | $96.75 | $107.55 |
| NVDA | $205.19 | 3.12% | $198.79 | $211.59 |
| NVO | $43.88 | 3.25% | $42.45 | $45.31 |
| OKLO | $57.49 | 7.44% | $53.21 | $61.77 |
| ONDS | $9.33 | 8.18% | $8.57 | $10.09 |
| OPEN | $4.44 | 7.24% | $4.12 | $4.76 |
| ORCL | $184.13 | 4.93% | $175.05 | $193.21 |
| PFE | $26.21 | 1.76% | $25.75 | $26.67 |
| PL | $31.15 | 8.79% | $28.41 | $33.89 |
| PLTR | $127.99 | 4.23% | $122.58 | $133.40 |
| POET | $12.53 | 12.69% | $10.94 | $14.12 |
| PONY | $8.15 | 7.25% | $7.56 | $8.74 |
| QBTS | $23.37 | 8.45% | $21.40 | $25.34 |
| QQQ | $721.34 | 2.28% | $704.89 | $737.79 |
| QS | $7.09 | 7.27% | $6.57 | $7.61 |
| QUBT | $9.93 | 7.96% | $9.14 | $10.72 |
| RBLX | $43.31 | 5.53% | $40.91 | $45.71 |
| RCAT | $11.18 | 8.83% | $10.19 | $12.17 |
| RDDT | $162.10 | 5.82% | $152.67 | $171.53 |
| RDW | $15.12 | 10.30% | $13.56 | $16.68 |
| RGTI | $20.98 | 9.05% | $19.08 | $22.88 |
| RKLB | $102.39 | 9.51% | $92.65 | $112.13 |
| SATS | $114.08 | 8.07% | $104.87 | $123.29 |
| SERV | $6.97 | 7.80% | $6.43 | $7.51 |
| SHOP | $108.24 | 5.00% | $102.83 | $113.65 |
| SMCI | $30.46 | 8.09% | $28.00 | $32.92 |
| SMR | $9.89 | 8.13% | $9.09 | $10.69 |
| SNDK | $1,980.10 | 8.88% | $1,804.27 | $2,155.93 |
| SNOW | $232.78 | 5.08% | $220.95 | $244.61 |
| SO | $94.00 | 1.54% | $92.55 | $95.45 |
| SOFI | $16.58 | 4.92% | $15.76 | $17.40 |
| SOUN | $6.90 | 6.58% | $6.45 | $7.35 |
| SOXX | $596.25 | 5.38% | $564.17 | $628.33 |
| SPY | $741.75 | 1.40% | $731.37 | $752.13 |
| TE | $8.50 | 12.25% | $7.46 | $9.54 |
| TEM | $47.82 | 6.50% | $44.71 | $50.93 |
| TER | $403.20 | 7.81% | $371.71 | $434.69 |
| TLN | $360.54 | 4.80% | $343.23 | $377.85 |
| TSLA | $406.43 | 4.64% | $387.57 | $425.29 |
| TSM | $423.93 | 3.89% | $407.44 | $440.42 |
| TTD | $19.28 | 5.99% | $18.13 | $20.43 |
| U | $27.24 | 5.91% | $25.63 | $28.85 |
| UMAC | $24.43 | 9.78% | $22.04 | $26.82 |
| UNH | $408.52 | 2.26% | $399.29 | $417.75 |
| UPST | $30.50 | 6.86% | $28.41 | $32.59 |
| USAR | $21.99 | 8.65% | $20.09 | $23.89 |
| UUUU | $15.04 | 7.02% | $13.98 | $16.10 |
| VRT | $302.87 | 5.47% | $286.30 | $319.44 |
| VST | $148.02 | 4.25% | $141.73 | $154.31 |
| VXX | $24.20 | 4.32% | $23.15 | $25.25 |
| WDC | $562.92 | 7.23% | $522.22 | $603.62 |
| WMT | $121.04 | 2.13% | $118.46 | $123.62 |
| WULF | $26.06 | 8.10% | $23.95 | $28.17 |
(Stock Price : 06/12/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.