옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 17일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $175.59 | 2.96% | $180.28 | $191.28 |
| XLF | $56.26 | 1.66% | $54.79 | $56.63 |
| XLE | $57.68 | 2.17% | $53.88 | $56.28 |
| XLV | $161.09 | 1.20% | $158.91 | $162.77 |
| XLI | $179.41 | 1.77% | $178.70 | $185.14 |
| XLY | $115.44 | 1.61% | $115.35 | $119.13 |
| XLP | $85.19 | 1.28% | $83.04 | $85.20 |
| XLU | $45.17 | 1.30% | $44.82 | $46.00 |
| XLB | $50.53 | 1.79% | $49.98 | $51.80 |
| XLC | $110.65 | 1.52% | $109.94 | $113.34 |
(Stock Price : 07/17/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $102.41 | 10.86% | $106.90 | $132.94 |
| AAPL | $333.74 | 2.14% | $308.57 | $322.07 |
| ADBE | $237.25 | 3.80% | $215.14 | $232.14 |
| ADI | $375.36 | 4.62% | $377.37 | $413.93 |
| ALAB | $303.62 | 10.31% | $370.39 | $455.55 |
| AMD | $495.76 | 6.79% | $520.01 | $595.77 |
| AMZN | $247.23 | 2.99% | $238.00 | $252.68 |
| ANET | $168.61 | 5.50% | $176.68 | $197.24 |
| APLD | $25.79 | 7.81% | $28.72 | $33.58 |
| APP | $424.54 | 6.19% | $475.60 | $538.36 |
| ARM | $267.19 | 8.73% | $295.16 | $351.62 |
| ASML | $1,747.58 | 7.22% | $1,667.55 | $1,927.09 |
| ASST | $11.86 | 8.06% | $11.36 | $13.36 |
| ASTS | $57.80 | 8.18% | $67.32 | $79.32 |
| AVGO | $370.83 | 4.43% | $382.25 | $417.69 |
| BABA | $114.97 | 4.11% | $107.71 | $116.95 |
| BBAI | $2.84 | 7.80% | $3.01 | $3.53 |
| BE | $214.96 | 11.48% | $216.53 | $272.69 |
| BIDU | $107.24 | 4.24% | $112.55 | $122.51 |
| BLSH | $22.41 | 5.27% | $22.95 | $25.51 |
| BMNR | $15.69 | 7.22% | $13.90 | $16.06 |
| CEG | $252.39 | 4.60% | $239.82 | $262.94 |
| CIEN | $374.41 | 7.22% | $427.46 | $493.98 |
| CIFR | $17.56 | 9.89% | $19.92 | $24.30 |
| CLS | $301.34 | 6.48% | $336.53 | $383.17 |
| CLSK | $13.03 | 8.20% | $11.80 | $13.90 |
| CMCSA | $23.79 | 2.70% | $22.93 | $24.21 |
| COF | $208.03 | 2.93% | $195.62 | $207.42 |
| COHR | $277.60 | 8.69% | $296.30 | $352.70 |
| COIN | $157.12 | 6.22% | $149.18 | $168.96 |
| CRCL | $60.46 | 7.91% | $60.91 | $71.37 |
| CRDO | $202.68 | 10.00% | $232.01 | $283.57 |
| CRM | $170.77 | 3.69% | $157.29 | $169.35 |
| CRSP | $47.78 | 5.79% | $50.26 | $56.44 |
| CRWD | $203.08 | 4.96% | $177.90 | $196.46 |
| CRWV | $73.21 | 7.76% | $81.98 | $95.78 |
| CVNA | $67.34 | 5.85% | $61.98 | $69.68 |
| DDOG | $258.69 | 5.37% | $243.71 | $271.37 |
| DELL | $396.34 | 7.08% | $404.17 | $465.77 |
| DG | $125.75 | 3.06% | $115.28 | $122.56 |
| DUOL | $133.85 | 5.88% | $117.42 | $132.10 |
| ETN | $399.99 | 3.28% | $393.92 | $420.64 |
| FIG | $23.95 | 7.28% | $19.57 | $22.65 |
| GDX | $71.32 | 3.86% | $72.61 | $78.45 |
| GE | $348.83 | 4.61% | $342.71 | $375.83 |
| GEV | $1,057.84 | 5.35% | $1,033.17 | $1,149.97 |
| GLW | $154.61 | 7.46% | $176.65 | $205.13 |
| GOOG | $346.12 | 2.70% | $345.44 | $364.62 |
| HIMS | $32.84 | 7.13% | $31.93 | $36.83 |
| HOOD | $99.96 | 5.70% | $105.59 | $118.35 |
| INOD | $60.81 | 7.25% | $62.88 | $72.72 |
| INTC | $95.04 | 7.35% | $101.77 | $117.91 |
| IONQ | $34.78 | 7.52% | $39.64 | $46.08 |
| IREN | $33.62 | 10.15% | $36.96 | $45.32 |
| IWM | $294.04 | 1.48% | $291.61 | $300.37 |
| JOBY | $7.23 | 7.09% | $7.17 | $8.27 |
| LAC | $2.95 | 7.72% | $3.06 | $3.58 |
| LAES | $2.54 | 11.17% | $2.49 | $3.11 |
| LITE | $732.82 | 8.28% | $735.60 | $868.42 |
| LLY | $1,179.11 | 2.83% | $1,154.94 | $1,222.22 |
| LMND | $67.18 | 5.99% | $66.29 | $74.73 |
| LRCX | $313.30 | 8.09% | $321.99 | $378.67 |
| LULU | $116.33 | 3.97% | $114.53 | $123.99 |
| LUNR | $13.52 | 8.50% | $14.77 | $17.51 |
| MARA | $10.69 | 7.63% | $11.64 | $13.56 |
| META | $646.01 | 4.63% | $638.23 | $700.19 |
| MP | $45.24 | 5.76% | $49.20 | $55.22 |
| MRVL | $188.68 | 8.13% | $216.64 | $254.98 |
| MSFT | $393.82 | 3.03% | $373.43 | $396.77 |
| MSTR | $94.85 | 7.34% | $87.69 | $101.59 |
| MU | $848.95 | 8.80% | $893.12 | $1,065.48 |
| NBIS | $177.71 | 11.44% | $194.52 | $244.78 |
| NEE | $88.80 | 1.83% | $86.35 | $89.57 |
| NFLX | $68.95 | 6.69% | $68.46 | $78.28 |
| NNE | $16.03 | 8.67% | $17.22 | $20.50 |
| NOK | $10.12 | 6.19% | $11.67 | $13.21 |
| NOW | $103.24 | 5.15% | $102.16 | $113.26 |
| NVDA | $202.81 | 3.40% | $203.79 | $218.13 |
| NVO | $50.32 | 3.18% | $47.91 | $51.05 |
| OKLO | $41.11 | 7.66% | $45.11 | $52.59 |
| ONDS | $6.53 | 7.84% | $6.69 | $7.83 |
| OPEN | $4.50 | 8.65% | $4.35 | $5.17 |
| ORCL | $126.41 | 5.05% | $133.54 | $147.74 |
| PFE | $25.05 | 1.82% | $23.73 | $24.61 |
| PL | $22.47 | 7.88% | $24.00 | $28.10 |
| PLTR | $132.38 | 4.37% | $121.25 | $132.33 |
| POET | $7.39 | 9.87% | $7.49 | $9.13 |
| PONY | $6.66 | 7.81% | $6.08 | $7.10 |
| QBTS | $16.73 | 7.43% | $18.60 | $21.58 |
| QQQ | $695.33 | 1.78% | $712.60 | $738.42 |
| QS | $5.86 | 7.17% | $6.11 | $7.05 |
| QUBT | $7.80 | 7.24% | $8.03 | $9.29 |
| RBLX | $51.68 | 5.82% | $52.13 | $58.57 |
| RCAT | $7.64 | 9.25% | $8.01 | $9.65 |
| RDDT | $181.18 | 5.79% | $184.03 | $206.65 |
| RDW | $8.45 | 8.34% | $9.33 | $11.03 |
| RGTI | $14.11 | 7.50% | $15.30 | $17.78 |
| RKLB | $67.62 | 7.45% | $75.00 | $87.08 |
| SERV | $5.09 | 7.65% | $5.47 | $6.37 |
| SHOP | $123.56 | 4.78% | $116.68 | $128.40 |
| SMCI | $24.18 | 7.25% | $26.26 | $30.36 |
| SMR | $7.72 | 7.91% | $8.32 | $9.76 |
| SNDK | $1,354.82 | 10.78% | $1,709.38 | $2,122.46 |
| SNOW | $268.90 | 4.80% | $248.90 | $274.00 |
| SO | $95.30 | 1.69% | $93.99 | $97.23 |
| SOFI | $17.28 | 5.23% | $17.80 | $19.76 |
| SOUN | $6.27 | 6.53% | $6.21 | $7.07 |
| SOXX | $521.81 | 5.04% | $552.04 | $610.64 |
| SPCX | $123.99 | 5.79% | $136.89 | $153.71 |
| SPY | $743.29 | 0.91% | $748.08 | $761.82 |
| TE | $5.84 | 12.08% | $6.02 | $7.68 |
| TEM | $52.47 | 6.64% | $54.36 | $62.10 |
| TER | $322.36 | 8.96% | $327.38 | $391.82 |
| TLN | $372.37 | 6.49% | $360.76 | $410.84 |
| TSLA | $380.84 | 3.96% | $391.61 | $423.91 |
| TSM | $398.37 | 5.44% | $410.49 | $457.73 |
| TTD | $18.59 | 5.49% | $18.46 | $20.60 |
| U | $28.99 | 6.14% | $28.99 | $32.79 |
| UMAC | $16.93 | 9.79% | $16.97 | $20.65 |
| UNH | $426.09 | 5.27% | $402.24 | $447.00 |
| UPST | $29.51 | 6.42% | $30.64 | $34.84 |
| USAR | $15.65 | 7.66% | $17.06 | $19.90 |
| UUUU | $11.49 | 8.23% | $12.46 | $14.70 |
| VRT | $289.56 | 6.73% | $297.40 | $340.32 |
| VST | $155.44 | 5.02% | $150.89 | $166.83 |
| VXX | $22.48 | 3.58% | $20.37 | $21.89 |
| WDC | $477.22 | 8.31% | $534.18 | $631.00 |
| WMT | $114.24 | 2.05% | $111.57 | $116.23 |
| WULF | $18.16 | 9.08% | $19.98 | $23.96 |
(Stock Price : 07/17/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.