옵션 시장은 매일 “오늘 가격이 어느 정도까지 움직일 수 있나?”를 내재 변동성(IV)으로 가격에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 10일 만기(0DTE) 기준, 종목별 Daily Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로 오늘의 변동 폭(리스크)을 한눈에 보도록 정리한 자료입니다.
중요 : 본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Expected Move(±1σ)는 옵션 시장이 가격에 반영한 “합리적인 하루 변동 범위”로, 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 구간을 의미합니다.
- 0DTE(오늘 만기)는 만기가 매우 짧아 감마/헤지 수요로 인해 변동이 급가속(스파이크)할 수 있습니다.
- 따라서 이 데이터는 “오를/내릴지”가 아니라 오늘 어디까지 흔들릴 수 있는지(폭)를 보는데 유용합니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Daily Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $185.78 | 1.55% | $182.48 | $188.22 |
| XLF | $55.71 | 0.53% | $55.25 | $55.83 |
| XLE | $55.08 | 0.99% | $54.28 | $55.36 |
| XLV | $160.84 | 0.65% | $161.12 | $163.22 |
| XLI | $181.92 | 1.15% | $179.03 | $183.19 |
| XLY | $117.24 | 1.11% | $115.55 | $118.15 |
| XLP | $84.12 | 0.56% | $82.73 | $83.67 |
| XLU | $45.41 | 0.71% | $44.81 | $45.45 |
| XLB | $50.89 | 0.96% | $49.78 | $50.74 |
| XLC | $111.64 | 1.15% | $109.24 | $111.78 |
(Stock Price : 07/10/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Daily Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $119.92 | 4.61% | $116.58 | $127.84 |
| AAPL | $315.32 | 0.91% | $313.34 | $319.10 |
| ADBE | $223.64 | 2.13% | $217.91 | $227.39 |
| ADI | $395.65 | 2.19% | $385.02 | $402.26 |
| ALAB | $412.97 | 4.60% | $398.25 | $436.65 |
| AMD | $557.89 | 2.94% | $530.65 | $562.79 |
| AMZN | $245.34 | 1.43% | $243.51 | $250.57 |
| ANET | $186.96 | 2.63% | $179.83 | $189.55 |
| APLD | $31.15 | 3.70% | $31.10 | $33.48 |
| APP | $506.98 | 2.43% | $507.78 | $533.08 |
| ARM | $323.39 | 3.99% | $314.79 | $340.95 |
| ASML | $1,797.32 | 2.50% | $1,759.14 | $1,849.36 |
| ASST | $12.36 | 4.52% | $12.03 | $13.17 |
| ASTS | $73.32 | 3.71% | $71.14 | $76.62 |
| AVGO | $399.97 | 2.15% | $392.49 | $409.73 |
| BABA | $112.33 | 2.10% | $108.81 | $113.47 |
| BBAI | $3.27 | 6.31% | $3.11 | $3.53 |
| BE | $244.61 | 5.36% | $243.24 | $270.80 |
| BIDU | $117.53 | 2.05% | $115.10 | $119.92 |
| BLSH | $24.23 | 3.87% | $23.84 | $25.76 |
| BMNR | $14.98 | 3.07% | $14.24 | $15.14 |
| CEG | $251.38 | 1.40% | $247.23 | $254.25 |
| CIEN | $460.72 | 3.60% | $445.70 | $478.98 |
| CIFR | $22.11 | 4.61% | $22.19 | $24.33 |
| CLS | $359.85 | 3.06% | $343.92 | $365.64 |
| CLSK | $12.85 | 3.53% | $12.43 | $13.35 |
| CMCSA | $23.57 | 1.55% | $22.99 | $23.71 |
| COF | $201.52 | 1.30% | $197.50 | $202.70 |
| COHR | $324.50 | 3.71% | $315.10 | $339.38 |
| COIN | $159.07 | 2.85% | $153.92 | $162.96 |
| CRCL | $66.14 | 3.04% | $61.09 | $64.93 |
| CRDO | $257.79 | 4.60% | $253.43 | $277.87 |
| CRM | $163.32 | 1.59% | $159.92 | $165.08 |
| CRSP | $53.35 | 2.58% | $54.89 | $57.79 |
| CRWD | $187.18 | 2.16% | $194.11 | $202.69 |
| CRWV | $88.88 | 3.43% | $86.62 | $92.78 |
| CVNA | $65.83 | 2.57% | $65.40 | $68.84 |
| DDOG | $257.54 | 2.51% | $262.25 | $275.75 |
| DELL | $434.97 | 3.17% | $435.95 | $464.49 |
| DG | $118.92 | 1.58% | $113.90 | $117.56 |
| DUOL | $124.76 | 2.48% | $126.73 | $133.17 |
| ETN | $407.28 | 1.44% | $399.99 | $411.67 |
| FIG | $21.11 | 3.91% | $21.39 | $23.13 |
| GDX | $75.53 | 1.34% | $74.76 | $76.80 |
| GE | $359.27 | 1.59% | $353.33 | $364.75 |
| GEV | $1,091.57 | 2.19% | $1,051.71 | $1,098.81 |
| GLW | $190.89 | 3.19% | $186.24 | $198.52 |
| GOOG | $355.03 | 1.23% | $351.86 | $360.62 |
| HIMS | $34.38 | 2.84% | $34.44 | $36.46 |
| HOOD | $111.97 | 2.70% | $112.00 | $118.22 |
| INOD | $67.80 | 4.04% | $66.39 | $71.97 |
| INTC | $109.84 | 3.39% | $108.72 | $116.36 |
| IONQ | $42.86 | 3.48% | $43.21 | $46.33 |
| IREN | $41.14 | 4.39% | $39.89 | $43.55 |
| IWM | $295.99 | 0.62% | $295.40 | $299.08 |
| JOBY | $7.72 | 2.66% | $7.78 | $8.20 |
| LAC | $3.32 | 2.69% | $3.46 | $3.66 |
| LAES | $2.80 | 7.07% | $2.67 | $3.07 |
| LITE | $802.01 | 3.70% | $756.70 | $814.84 |
| LLY | $1,188.58 | 1.46% | $1,199.18 | $1,234.72 |
| LMND | $70.51 | 3.14% | $68.12 | $72.54 |
| LRCX | $350.33 | 3.50% | $340.81 | $365.53 |
| LULU | $119.26 | 1.64% | $114.60 | $118.42 |
| LUNR | $16.14 | 3.74% | $16.27 | $17.53 |
| MARA | $12.60 | 3.86% | $12.71 | $13.73 |
| META | $669.21 | 1.93% | $619.29 | $643.67 |
| MP | $52.21 | 2.43% | $50.45 | $52.97 |
| MRVL | $235.81 | 3.62% | $234.46 | $252.08 |
| MSFT | $385.10 | 1.33% | $379.25 | $389.47 |
| MSTR | $94.64 | 3.34% | $90.75 | $97.03 |
| MU | $979.30 | 4.39% | $948.11 | $1,035.17 |
| NBIS | $219.65 | 4.99% | $205.41 | $226.99 |
| NEE | $87.96 | 0.90% | $86.32 | $87.88 |
| NFLX | $73.37 | 1.47% | $74.36 | $76.58 |
| NNE | $18.86 | 3.49% | $18.62 | $19.96 |
| NOK | $12.44 | 3.41% | $12.46 | $13.34 |
| NOW | $107.71 | 2.38% | $106.25 | $111.43 |
| NVDA | $210.96 | 1.44% | $199.86 | $205.70 |
| NVO | $49.48 | 1.23% | $48.28 | $49.48 |
| OKLO | $48.85 | 3.48% | $47.56 | $50.98 |
| ONDS | $7.26 | 3.73% | $7.36 | $7.94 |
| OPEN | $4.76 | 4.94% | $5.04 | $5.56 |
| ORCL | $140.64 | 2.29% | $140.92 | $147.52 |
| PFE | $24.17 | 0.99% | $24.01 | $24.49 |
| PL | $26.05 | 3.76% | $26.18 | $28.22 |
| PLTR | $126.79 | 2.02% | $126.43 | $131.65 |
| POET | $8.31 | 4.94% | $8.27 | $9.13 |
| PONY | $6.59 | 4.31% | $6.44 | $7.02 |
| QBTS | $20.09 | 3.14% | $20.50 | $21.82 |
| QQQ | $725.51 | 0.82% | $717.30 | $729.16 |
| QS | $6.58 | 3.31% | $6.68 | $7.14 |
| QUBT | $8.66 | 3.76% | $8.81 | $9.49 |
| RBLX | $55.35 | 2.43% | $55.06 | $57.80 |
| RCAT | $8.83 | 4.39% | $8.79 | $9.59 |
| RDDT | $195.34 | 2.82% | $194.66 | $205.96 |
| RDW | $10.18 | 4.06% | $10.04 | $10.90 |
| RGTI | $16.54 | 3.26% | $16.44 | $17.54 |
| RKLB | $81.04 | 3.49% | $79.67 | $85.43 |
| SERV | $5.92 | 3.27% | $5.84 | $6.24 |
| SHOP | $122.54 | 2.09% | $120.60 | $125.74 |
| SMCI | $28.31 | 3.25% | $27.32 | $29.16 |
| SMR | $9.04 | 3.43% | $8.72 | $9.34 |
| SNDK | $1,915.92 | 5.21% | $1,761.45 | $1,955.09 |
| SNOW | $261.45 | 1.99% | $262.17 | $272.81 |
| SO | $95.61 | 0.80% | $94.41 | $95.93 |
| SOFI | $18.78 | 2.42% | $18.17 | $19.07 |
| SOUN | $6.64 | 3.70% | $6.43 | $6.93 |
| SOXX | $581.34 | 2.20% | $568.90 | $594.50 |
| SPCX | $145.30 | 2.56% | $148.26 | $156.06 |
| SPY | $754.95 | 0.41% | $748.63 | $754.79 |
| TE | $6.85 | 6.72% | $6.77 | $7.75 |
| TEM | $58.23 | 2.91% | $59.71 | $63.29 |
| TER | $359.60 | 3.92% | $348.53 | $376.97 |
| TLN | $385.80 | 1.93% | $377.02 | $391.86 |
| TSLA | $407.76 | 1.70% | $399.64 | $413.46 |
| TSM | $434.11 | 1.94% | $428.48 | $445.44 |
| TTD | $19.53 | 2.41% | $19.27 | $20.23 |
| U | $30.89 | 2.72% | $29.89 | $31.57 |
| UMAC | $18.81 | 4.26% | $19.85 | $21.61 |
| UNH | $424.62 | 1.12% | $426.85 | $436.51 |
| UPST | $32.74 | 3.09% | $32.20 | $34.26 |
| USAR | $18.48 | 3.44% | $18.22 | $19.52 |
| UUUU | $13.58 | 3.20% | $13.06 | $13.92 |
| VRT | $318.86 | 2.72% | $315.11 | $332.73 |
| VST | $158.86 | 2.11% | $154.65 | $161.31 |
| VXX | $21.13 | 1.41% | $21.28 | $21.88 |
| WDC | $582.59 | 4.04% | $554.70 | $601.40 |
| WMT | $113.90 | 0.92% | $111.18 | $113.24 |
| WULF | $21.97 | 4.15% | $22.24 | $24.16 |
(Stock Price : 07/10/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
종가가 ±σ 범위를 벗어난 경우 표시합니다.
- 종가가 -σ 이하: 티커/Price 빨간색 표시
- 종가가 +σ 이상: 티커/Price 파란색 표시
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
If the closing price moves outside the ±σ range, it will be highlighted:
- Close at or below -σ: Ticker/Price shown in red
- Close at or above +σ: Ticker/Price shown in blue
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.