옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 10일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $185.78 | 3.33% | $174.58 | $186.60 |
| XLF | $55.71 | 1.37% | $54.86 | $56.38 |
| XLE | $55.08 | 2.32% | $51.99 | $54.45 |
| XLV | $160.84 | 1.64% | $161.05 | $166.43 |
| XLI | $181.92 | 1.87% | $180.47 | $187.35 |
| XLY | $117.24 | 1.94% | $114.85 | $119.39 |
| XLP | $84.12 | 1.45% | $83.76 | $86.22 |
| XLU | $45.41 | 1.48% | $45.08 | $46.44 |
| XLB | $50.89 | 1.67% | $51.14 | $52.88 |
| XLC | $111.64 | 1.69% | $107.75 | $111.45 |
(Stock Price : 07/10/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $119.92 | 11.96% | $106.48 | $135.42 |
| AAPL | $315.32 | 2.51% | $300.88 | $316.38 |
| ADBE | $223.64 | 4.12% | $210.67 | $228.77 |
| ADI | $395.65 | 5.16% | $357.70 | $396.62 |
| ALAB | $412.97 | 11.26% | $360.66 | $452.18 |
| AMD | $557.89 | 6.93% | $481.94 | $553.70 |
| AMZN | $245.34 | 3.33% | $234.59 | $250.75 |
| ANET | $186.96 | 5.80% | $150.71 | $169.27 |
| APLD | $31.15 | 9.45% | $29.94 | $36.18 |
| APP | $506.98 | 6.69% | $491.80 | $562.32 |
| ARM | $323.39 | 9.48% | $285.39 | $345.17 |
| ASML | $1,797.32 | 6.04% | $1,662.45 | $1,876.19 |
| ASST | $12.36 | 9.80% | $11.83 | $14.39 |
| ASTS | $73.32 | 10.03% | $76.59 | $93.67 |
| AVGO | $399.97 | 4.59% | $343.91 | $376.99 |
| BABA | $112.33 | 4.29% | $92.02 | $100.26 |
| BBAI | $3.27 | 6.15% | $3.31 | $3.75 |
| BE | $244.61 | 13.08% | $235.46 | $306.32 |
| BIDU | $117.53 | 5.18% | $107.43 | $119.17 |
| BLSH | $24.23 | 6.37% | $23.94 | $27.20 |
| BMNR | $14.98 | 7.84% | $13.23 | $15.49 |
| CEG | $251.38 | 4.42% | $228.68 | $249.82 |
| CIEN | $460.72 | 8.03% | $388.54 | $456.38 |
| CIFR | $22.11 | 11.54% | $17.73 | $22.35 |
| CLS | $359.85 | 7.55% | $310.83 | $361.59 |
| CLSK | $12.85 | 9.10% | $11.47 | $13.77 |
| CMCSA | $23.57 | 3.12% | $23.05 | $24.53 |
| COF | $201.52 | 2.86% | $199.25 | $210.99 |
| COHR | $324.50 | 9.61% | $301.32 | $365.40 |
| COIN | $159.07 | 7.09% | $153.75 | $177.21 |
| CRCL | $66.14 | 8.54% | $59.10 | $70.14 |
| CRDO | $257.79 | 10.23% | $217.16 | $266.66 |
| CRM | $163.32 | 4.04% | $159.40 | $172.82 |
| CRSP | $53.35 | 7.40% | $55.63 | $64.53 |
| CRWD | $187.18 | 5.59% | $183.14 | $204.82 |
| CRWV | $88.88 | 8.93% | $74.45 | $89.05 |
| CVNA | $65.83 | 6.77% | $63.96 | $73.24 |
| DDOG | $257.54 | 6.10% | $244.48 | $276.24 |
| DELL | $434.97 | 7.52% | $364.67 | $423.97 |
| DG | $118.92 | 3.26% | $114.32 | $122.02 |
| DUOL | $124.76 | 6.58% | $117.48 | $134.04 |
| ETN | $407.28 | 4.17% | $381.90 | $415.14 |
| FIG | $21.11 | 8.62% | $19.50 | $23.18 |
| GDX | $75.53 | 3.96% | $75.32 | $81.54 |
| GE | $359.27 | 3.08% | $365.89 | $389.15 |
| GEV | $1,091.57 | 6.40% | $1,041.87 | $1,184.35 |
| GLW | $190.89 | 9.07% | $178.94 | $214.64 |
| GOOG | $355.03 | 3.08% | $345.21 | $367.15 |
| HIMS | $34.38 | 8.18% | $33.79 | $39.81 |
| HOOD | $111.97 | 6.66% | $105.22 | $120.24 |
| INOD | $67.80 | 8.17% | $63.25 | $74.51 |
| INTC | $109.84 | 8.88% | $109.66 | $131.04 |
| IONQ | $42.86 | 8.73% | $44.83 | $53.41 |
| IREN | $41.14 | 11.69% | $34.28 | $43.36 |
| IWM | $295.99 | 1.67% | $292.61 | $302.55 |
| JOBY | $7.72 | 7.08% | $7.89 | $9.09 |
| LAC | $3.32 | 7.71% | $3.47 | $4.05 |
| LAES | $2.80 | 9.68% | $2.74 | $3.32 |
| LITE | $802.01 | 9.72% | $657.53 | $799.11 |
| LLY | $1,188.58 | 3.29% | $1,173.97 | $1,253.85 |
| LMND | $70.51 | 6.97% | $66.54 | $76.50 |
| LRCX | $350.33 | 8.73% | $320.73 | $382.09 |
| LULU | $119.26 | 4.15% | $113.52 | $123.34 |
| LUNR | $16.14 | 10.33% | $17.56 | $21.60 |
| MARA | $12.60 | 8.73% | $11.32 | $13.48 |
| META | $669.21 | 3.55% | $562.21 | $603.59 |
| MP | $52.21 | 6.02% | $50.10 | $56.52 |
| MRVL | $235.81 | 9.78% | $221.30 | $269.28 |
| MSFT | $385.10 | 3.35% | $377.41 | $403.57 |
| MSTR | $94.64 | 8.96% | $91.74 | $109.80 |
| MU | $979.30 | 10.77% | $870.46 | $1,080.66 |
| NBIS | $219.65 | 12.58% | $188.50 | $242.74 |
| NEE | $87.96 | 2.14% | $86.45 | $90.23 |
| NFLX | $73.37 | 3.24% | $75.13 | $80.17 |
| NNE | $18.86 | 9.46% | $18.14 | $21.92 |
| NOK | $12.44 | 6.00% | $11.35 | $12.79 |
| NOW | $107.71 | 6.87% | $99.02 | $113.62 |
| NVDA | $210.96 | 3.58% | $187.86 | $201.80 |
| NVO | $49.48 | 3.61% | $48.61 | $52.25 |
| OKLO | $48.85 | 9.08% | $47.61 | $57.11 |
| ONDS | $7.26 | 9.15% | $6.73 | $8.09 |
| OPEN | $4.76 | 8.15% | $4.50 | $5.30 |
| ORCL | $140.64 | 5.52% | $132.53 | $148.01 |
| PFE | $24.17 | 2.05% | $23.82 | $24.82 |
| PL | $26.05 | 9.21% | $28.49 | $34.27 |
| PLTR | $126.79 | 5.01% | $122.82 | $135.78 |
| POET | $8.31 | 12.25% | $7.69 | $9.83 |
| PONY | $6.59 | 7.48% | $6.32 | $7.34 |
| QBTS | $20.09 | 9.15% | $20.47 | $24.59 |
| QQQ | $725.51 | 2.35% | $695.85 | $729.35 |
| QS | $6.58 | 8.12% | $6.50 | $7.64 |
| QUBT | $8.66 | 8.50% | $8.28 | $9.82 |
| RBLX | $55.35 | 6.59% | $51.76 | $59.06 |
| RCAT | $8.83 | 10.02% | $9.39 | $11.49 |
| RDDT | $195.34 | 6.62% | $181.78 | $207.56 |
| RDW | $10.18 | 11.01% | $10.06 | $12.56 |
| RGTI | $16.54 | 9.37% | $16.26 | $19.62 |
| RKLB | $81.04 | 9.01% | $91.41 | $109.51 |
| SERV | $5.92 | 8.42% | $5.78 | $6.84 |
| SHOP | $122.54 | 5.42% | $112.99 | $125.93 |
| SMCI | $28.31 | 8.37% | $24.94 | $29.50 |
| SMR | $9.04 | 9.20% | $8.86 | $10.66 |
| SNDK | $1,915.92 | 12.92% | $1,519.55 | $1,970.45 |
| SNOW | $261.45 | 5.59% | $245.61 | $274.69 |
| SO | $95.61 | 1.47% | $96.54 | $99.42 |
| SOFI | $18.78 | 5.38% | $17.26 | $19.22 |
| SOUN | $6.64 | 6.66% | $6.11 | $6.99 |
| SOXX | $581.34 | 5.98% | $532.45 | $600.19 |
| SPCX | $145.30 | 7.72% | $149.49 | $174.51 |
| SPY | $754.95 | 1.10% | $736.59 | $752.97 |
| TE | $6.85 | 14.63% | $7.31 | $9.81 |
| TEM | $58.23 | 7.11% | $55.98 | $64.56 |
| TER | $359.60 | 9.41% | $334.36 | $403.82 |
| TLN | $385.80 | 6.33% | $341.59 | $387.75 |
| TSLA | $407.76 | 4.37% | $376.26 | $410.64 |
| TSM | $434.11 | 5.37% | $410.85 | $457.47 |
| TTD | $19.53 | 5.61% | $18.03 | $20.17 |
| U | $30.89 | 6.10% | $27.53 | $31.11 |
| UMAC | $18.81 | 11.40% | $19.56 | $24.60 |
| UNH | $424.62 | 2.44% | $414.98 | $435.74 |
| UPST | $32.74 | 6.88% | $32.39 | $37.17 |
| USAR | $18.48 | 8.43% | $17.54 | $20.76 |
| UUUU | $13.58 | 7.12% | $12.83 | $14.79 |
| VRT | $318.86 | 7.20% | $278.89 | $322.17 |
| VST | $158.86 | 4.85% | $143.72 | $158.38 |
| VXX | $21.13 | 3.65% | $21.24 | $22.84 |
| WDC | $582.59 | 10.67% | $481.49 | $596.51 |
| WMT | $113.90 | 2.34% | $109.22 | $114.46 |
| WULF | $21.97 | 11.33% | $18.78 | $23.58 |
(Stock Price : 07/10/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.