옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 2일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $180.59 | 3.24% | $175.24 | $186.98 |
| XLF | $55.62 | 1.33% | $52.86 | $54.28 |
| XLE | $53.22 | 2.01% | $52.76 | $54.92 |
| XLV | $163.74 | 1.43% | $158.05 | $162.63 |
| XLI | $183.91 | 1.74% | $178.05 | $184.35 |
| XLY | $117.12 | 1.90% | $112.20 | $116.54 |
| XLP | $84.99 | 1.34% | $83.57 | $85.85 |
| XLU | $45.76 | 1.21% | $45.64 | $46.76 |
| XLB | $52.01 | 1.78% | $50.68 | $52.52 |
| XLC | $109.60 | 1.75% | $104.32 | $108.04 |
(Stock Price : 07/02/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $120.95 | 11.01% | $120.75 | $150.63 |
| AAPL | $308.63 | 2.45% | $276.83 | $290.73 |
| ADBE | $219.72 | 3.23% | $196.18 | $209.28 |
| ADI | $377.16 | 4.73% | $368.61 | $405.21 |
| ALAB | $406.42 | 9.06% | $356.25 | $427.23 |
| AMD | $517.82 | 6.33% | $488.56 | $554.60 |
| AMZN | $242.67 | 3.02% | $225.66 | $239.72 |
| ANET | $159.99 | 4.97% | $149.77 | $165.43 |
| APLD | $33.06 | 8.48% | $35.84 | $42.48 |
| APP | $527.06 | 5.60% | $450.36 | $503.80 |
| ARM | $315.28 | 8.27% | $306.63 | $361.91 |
| ASML | $1,769.32 | 4.76% | $1,709.20 | $1,880.04 |
| ASST | $13.11 | 9.52% | $10.26 | $12.42 |
| ASTS | $85.13 | 8.41% | $65.44 | $77.46 |
| AVGO | $360.45 | 4.26% | $349.47 | $380.57 |
| BABA | $96.14 | 3.94% | $91.07 | $98.55 |
| BBAI | $3.53 | 5.59% | $3.29 | $3.67 |
| BE | $270.89 | 10.73% | $224.98 | $279.06 |
| BIDU | $113.30 | 4.33% | $99.71 | $108.73 |
| BLSH | $25.57 | 7.15% | $21.62 | $24.96 |
| BMNR | $14.36 | 6.62% | $12.66 | $14.46 |
| CEG | $239.25 | 3.84% | $253.88 | $274.16 |
| CIEN | $422.46 | 6.97% | $446.08 | $512.92 |
| CIFR | $20.04 | 9.69% | $23.43 | $28.45 |
| CLS | $336.21 | 6.39% | $315.96 | $359.10 |
| CLSK | $12.62 | 7.89% | $15.04 | $17.62 |
| CMCSA | $23.79 | 2.76% | $22.53 | $23.81 |
| COF | $205.12 | 2.81% | $198.27 | $209.73 |
| COHR | $333.36 | 7.99% | $350.15 | $410.97 |
| COIN | $165.48 | 6.09% | $139.98 | $158.14 |
| CRCL | $64.62 | 7.15% | $68.31 | $78.83 |
| CRDO | $241.91 | 9.47% | $215.46 | $260.54 |
| CRM | $166.11 | 3.67% | $152.56 | $164.18 |
| CRSP | $60.08 | 5.89% | $51.69 | $58.15 |
| CRWD | $193.98 | 4.49% | $669.61 | $732.57 |
| CRWV | $81.75 | 7.48% | $89.36 | $103.80 |
| CVNA | $68.60 | 6.20% | $58.48 | $66.22 |
| DDOG | $260.36 | 5.26% | $227.16 | $252.38 |
| DELL | $394.32 | 6.22% | $374.64 | $424.34 |
| DG | $118.17 | 2.94% | $116.00 | $123.02 |
| DUOL | $125.76 | 5.94% | $114.27 | $128.71 |
| ETN | $398.52 | 3.43% | $388.87 | $416.49 |
| FIG | $21.34 | 7.44% | $17.23 | $20.01 |
| GDX | $78.43 | 3.79% | $74.08 | $79.92 |
| GE | $377.52 | 3.26% | $356.97 | $381.03 |
| GEV | $1,113.11 | 4.83% | $994.69 | $1,095.65 |
| GLW | $196.79 | 6.76% | $206.11 | $235.99 |
| GOOG | $356.18 | 3.00% | $324.65 | $344.73 |
| HIMS | $36.80 | 7.31% | $31.46 | $36.42 |
| HOOD | $112.73 | 5.85% | $92.92 | $104.46 |
| INOD | $68.88 | 7.63% | $68.26 | $79.54 |
| INTC | $120.35 | 7.41% | $118.81 | $137.83 |
| IONQ | $49.12 | 7.88% | $45.42 | $53.20 |
| IREN | $38.82 | 9.28% | $42.83 | $51.59 |
| IWM | $297.58 | 1.83% | $294.34 | $305.32 |
| JOBY | $8.49 | 6.40% | $8.26 | $9.40 |
| LAC | $3.76 | 5.94% | $3.56 | $4.02 |
| LAES | $3.03 | 8.92% | $2.84 | $3.40 |
| LITE | $728.32 | 7.65% | $754.48 | $879.48 |
| LLY | $1,213.91 | 3.21% | $1,169.34 | $1,246.90 |
| LMND | $71.52 | 5.80% | $55.45 | $62.27 |
| LRCX | $351.41 | 7.02% | $352.48 | $405.70 |
| LULU | $118.43 | 3.70% | $113.22 | $121.92 |
| LUNR | $19.58 | 9.80% | $17.85 | $21.73 |
| MARA | $12.40 | 2.30% | $14.21 | $14.87 |
| META | $582.90 | 2.96% | $533.96 | $566.54 |
| MP | $53.31 | 5.93% | $50.70 | $57.10 |
| MRVL | $245.29 | 8.15% | $245.03 | $288.51 |
| MSFT | $390.49 | 3.51% | $359.88 | $386.06 |
| MSTR | $100.77 | 9.39% | $74.58 | $90.04 |
| MU | $975.56 | 8.35% | $1,037.78 | $1,226.88 |
| NBIS | $215.62 | 9.92% | $216.46 | $264.14 |
| NEE | $88.34 | 2.12% | $86.68 | $90.44 |
| NFLX | $77.65 | 2.88% | $71.68 | $75.94 |
| NNE | $20.03 | 8.34% | $18.21 | $21.53 |
| NOK | $12.07 | 6.24% | $12.20 | $13.82 |
| NOW | $106.32 | 5.04% | $93.38 | $103.30 |
| NVDA | $194.83 | 3.18% | $186.41 | $198.65 |
| NVO | $50.43 | 3.12% | $46.57 | $49.57 |
| OKLO | $52.36 | 7.42% | $46.29 | $53.71 |
| ONDS | $7.41 | 7.04% | $7.28 | $8.38 |
| OPEN | $4.90 | 7.47% | $4.04 | $4.70 |
| ORCL | $140.27 | 4.58% | $141.73 | $155.33 |
| PFE | $24.32 | 1.75% | $23.86 | $24.72 |
| PL | $31.38 | 7.76% | $24.97 | $29.17 |
| PLTR | $129.30 | 4.40% | $107.96 | $117.90 |
| POET | $8.76 | 9.67% | $8.53 | $10.35 |
| PONY | $6.83 | 6.53% | $6.42 | $7.32 |
| QBTS | $22.53 | 8.08% | $20.92 | $24.60 |
| QQQ | $712.60 | 2.55% | $688.50 | $724.54 |
| QS | $7.07 | 7.36% | $6.63 | $7.69 |
| QUBT | $9.05 | 7.81% | $8.46 | $9.90 |
| RBLX | $55.41 | 5.77% | $44.82 | $50.30 |
| RCAT | $10.44 | 8.13% | $8.53 | $10.03 |
| RDDT | $194.67 | 5.88% | $157.12 | $176.76 |
| RDW | $11.31 | 8.32% | $10.02 | $11.84 |
| RGTI | $17.94 | 8.19% | $16.86 | $19.86 |
| RKLB | $100.46 | 7.12% | $78.52 | $90.56 |
| SERV | $6.31 | 7.77% | $5.54 | $6.48 |
| SHOP | $119.46 | 4.82% | $111.23 | $122.49 |
| SMCI | $27.22 | 6.90% | $28.52 | $32.74 |
| SMR | $9.76 | 8.24% | $9.27 | $10.93 |
| SNDK | $1,745.00 | 9.41% | $1,893.97 | $2,287.45 |
| SNOW | $260.15 | 5.26% | $235.86 | $262.06 |
| SO | $97.98 | 1.47% | $95.73 | $98.59 |
| SOFI | $18.24 | 4.83% | $16.99 | $18.71 |
| SOUN | $6.55 | 6.18% | $6.01 | $6.81 |
| SOXX | $566.32 | 5.78% | $555.84 | $624.04 |
| SPCX | $162.00 | 6.16% | $143.79 | $162.67 |
| SPY | $744.78 | 1.45% | $718.42 | $739.56 |
| TE | $8.56 | 11.33% | $7.28 | $9.14 |
| TEM | $60.27 | 6.83% | $52.31 | $59.97 |
| TER | $369.09 | 7.71% | $403.18 | $470.54 |
| TLN | $364.67 | 5.73% | $380.94 | $427.24 |
| TSLA | $393.45 | 3.95% | $364.71 | $394.71 |
| TSM | $434.16 | 4.13% | $414.49 | $450.21 |
| TTD | $19.10 | 4.74% | $17.50 | $19.24 |
| U | $29.32 | 5.77% | $26.60 | $29.86 |
| UMAC | $22.08 | 7.41% | $17.68 | $20.52 |
| UNH | $425.36 | 2.20% | $418.48 | $437.30 |
| UPST | $34.78 | 6.90% | $31.34 | $35.98 |
| USAR | $19.15 | 7.95% | $18.84 | $22.10 |
| UUUU | $13.81 | 6.90% | $13.61 | $15.63 |
| VRT | $300.53 | 6.01% | $285.68 | $322.22 |
| VST | $151.05 | 4.43% | $156.25 | $170.73 |
| VXX | $22.04 | 4.56% | $22.49 | $24.63 |
| WDC | $539.00 | 8.67% | $535.60 | $637.30 |
| WMT | $111.84 | 1.99% | $113.39 | $117.99 |
| WULF | $21.18 | 8.68% | $23.59 | $28.07 |
(Stock Price : 07/02/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.