옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 6월 26일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $181.11 | 3.28% | $185.16 | $197.72 |
| XLF | $53.57 | 1.54% | $52.75 | $54.39 |
| XLE | $53.84 | 2.63% | $52.36 | $55.18 |
| XLV | $160.34 | 1.48% | $147.19 | $151.61 |
| XLI | $181.20 | 1.99% | $177.31 | $184.51 |
| XLY | $114.37 | 1.70% | $115.17 | $119.15 |
| XLP | $84.71 | 1.48% | $82.07 | $84.53 |
| XLU | $46.20 | 1.81% | $43.95 | $45.57 |
| XLB | $51.60 | 1.86% | $50.85 | $52.77 |
| XLC | $106.18 | 1.67% | $107.62 | $111.28 |
(Stock Price : 06/26/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $135.69 | 12.63% | $141.41 | $182.29 |
| AAPL | $283.78 | 2.21% | $291.42 | $304.60 |
| ADBE | $202.73 | 4.01% | $187.33 | $202.99 |
| ADI | $386.91 | 4.80% | $413.61 | $455.31 |
| ALAB | $391.74 | 9.92% | $375.70 | $458.44 |
| AMD | $521.58 | 6.97% | $499.92 | $574.82 |
| AMZN | $232.69 | 3.04% | $236.96 | $251.82 |
| ANET | $157.60 | 5.05% | $161.10 | $178.24 |
| APLD | $39.16 | 8.96% | $42.42 | $50.76 |
| APP | $477.08 | 6.29% | $440.17 | $499.25 |
| ARM | $334.27 | 10.87% | $391.69 | $487.23 |
| ASML | $1,794.62 | 5.29% | $1,827.60 | $2,031.76 |
| ASST | $11.34 | 9.66% | $13.42 | $16.28 |
| ASTS | $71.45 | 9.19% | $73.25 | $88.07 |
| AVGO | $365.02 | 4.95% | $390.99 | $431.71 |
| BABA | $94.81 | 3.61% | $103.23 | $110.97 |
| BBAI | $3.48 | 6.84% | $3.65 | $4.19 |
| BE | $252.02 | 11.37% | $291.51 | $366.31 |
| BIDU | $104.22 | 4.60% | $106.62 | $116.90 |
| BLSH | $23.29 | 6.77% | $22.47 | $25.73 |
| BMNR | $13.56 | 6.89% | $15.03 | $17.25 |
| CEG | $264.02 | 4.54% | $261.62 | $286.50 |
| CIEN | $479.50 | 7.70% | $395.25 | $461.19 |
| CIFR | $25.94 | 10.42% | $26.14 | $32.22 |
| CLS | $337.53 | 7.36% | $345.13 | $399.97 |
| CLSK | $16.33 | 7.70% | $15.91 | $18.57 |
| CMCSA | $23.17 | 3.07% | $21.74 | $23.12 |
| COF | $204.00 | 3.03% | $195.42 | $207.64 |
| COHR | $380.56 | 9.02% | $354.43 | $424.71 |
| COIN | $149.06 | 6.46% | $152.71 | $173.81 |
| CRCL | $73.57 | 7.38% | $74.31 | $86.15 |
| CRDO | $238.00 | 10.59% | $243.04 | $300.62 |
| CRM | $158.37 | 4.05% | $145.63 | $157.93 |
| CRSP | $54.92 | 5.48% | $51.13 | $57.05 |
| CRWD | $701.09 | 4.87% | $651.51 | $718.21 |
| CRWV | $96.58 | 8.75% | $107.63 | $128.27 |
| CVNA | $62.35 | 6.99% | $61.91 | $71.21 |
| DDOG | $239.77 | 5.83% | $210.00 | $236.00 |
| DELL | $399.49 | 7.50% | $378.79 | $440.21 |
| DG | $119.51 | 3.39% | $109.60 | $117.30 |
| DUOL | $121.49 | 6.21% | $117.76 | $133.36 |
| ETN | $402.68 | 3.40% | $407.43 | $436.11 |
| FIG | $18.62 | 7.75% | $17.42 | $20.34 |
| GDX | $77.00 | 4.65% | $78.67 | $86.35 |
| GE | $369.00 | 3.25% | $346.02 | $369.26 |
| GEV | $1,045.17 | 4.96% | $1,054.69 | $1,164.77 |
| GLW | $221.05 | 7.38% | $180.53 | $209.31 |
| GOOG | $334.69 | 2.86% | $356.95 | $377.97 |
| HIMS | $33.94 | 8.94% | $32.30 | $38.64 |
| HOOD | $98.69 | 6.50% | $101.12 | $115.18 |
| INOD | $73.90 | 8.87% | $87.03 | $103.97 |
| INTC | $128.32 | 8.56% | $122.52 | $145.46 |
| IONQ | $49.31 | 9.02% | $51.45 | $61.65 |
| IREN | $47.21 | 9.91% | $54.02 | $65.90 |
| IWM | $299.83 | 1.93% | $289.89 | $301.29 |
| JOBY | $8.83 | 6.92% | $9.31 | $10.69 |
| LAC | $3.79 | 6.92% | $4.07 | $4.67 |
| LAES | $3.12 | 9.14% | $2.83 | $3.41 |
| LITE | $816.98 | 8.84% | $774.86 | $925.14 |
| LLY | $1,208.12 | 3.05% | $1,065.06 | $1,132.08 |
| LMND | $58.86 | 6.45% | $55.04 | $62.64 |
| LRCX | $379.09 | 7.52% | $359.78 | $418.30 |
| LULU | $117.57 | 3.52% | $107.84 | $115.70 |
| LUNR | $19.79 | 9.70% | $20.63 | $25.07 |
| MARA | $14.54 | 7.74% | $13.12 | $15.32 |
| META | $550.25 | 3.25% | $558.46 | $595.98 |
| MP | $53.90 | 6.81% | $56.73 | $65.03 |
| MRVL | $266.77 | 10.66% | $277.47 | $343.69 |
| MSFT | $372.97 | 2.97% | $368.13 | $390.67 |
| MSTR | $82.31 | 7.78% | $103.78 | $121.28 |
| MU | $1,132.33 | 12.21% | $995.53 | $1,272.45 |
| NBIS | $240.30 | 10.85% | $255.58 | $317.80 |
| NEE | $88.56 | 2.13% | $84.90 | $88.60 |
| NFLX | $73.81 | 2.87% | $75.16 | $79.60 |
| NNE | $19.87 | 9.86% | $25.43 | $30.99 |
| NOK | $13.01 | 6.87% | $12.56 | $14.42 |
| NOW | $98.34 | 5.35% | $89.96 | $100.12 |
| NVDA | $192.53 | 3.40% | $203.53 | $217.85 |
| NVO | $48.07 | 3.25% | $41.79 | $44.59 |
| OKLO | $50.00 | 8.81% | $55.78 | $66.56 |
| ONDS | $7.83 | 8.06% | $8.52 | $10.02 |
| OPEN | $4.37 | 7.61% | $4.13 | $4.81 |
| ORCL | $148.53 | 5.10% | $174.89 | $193.69 |
| PFE | $24.29 | 2.05% | $24.69 | $25.73 |
| PL | $27.07 | 8.82% | $25.74 | $30.72 |
| PLTR | $112.93 | 4.51% | $122.68 | $134.26 |
| POET | $9.44 | 12.21% | $10.67 | $13.63 |
| PONY | $6.87 | 8.07% | $7.67 | $9.01 |
| QBTS | $22.76 | 9.25% | $22.41 | $26.97 |
| QQQ | $706.52 | 2.28% | $723.73 | $757.51 |
| QS | $7.16 | 10.71% | $7.18 | $8.90 |
| QUBT | $9.18 | 9.35% | $9.75 | $11.77 |
| RBLX | $47.56 | 7.17% | $47.84 | $55.22 |
| RCAT | $9.28 | 9.68% | $10.33 | $12.55 |
| RDDT | $166.94 | 6.70% | $163.24 | $186.68 |
| RDW | $10.93 | 10.10% | $12.90 | $15.80 |
| RGTI | $18.36 | 9.55% | $19.32 | $23.40 |
| RKLB | $84.54 | 8.63% | $97.99 | $116.49 |
| SATS | $0.20 | 7.27% | $101.23 | $117.11 |
| SERV | $6.01 | 8.82% | $6.37 | $7.61 |
| SHOP | $116.86 | 4.94% | $103.47 | $114.23 |
| SMCI | $30.63 | 7.84% | $28.26 | $33.06 |
| SMR | $10.10 | 9.79% | $10.59 | $12.89 |
| SNDK | $2,090.71 | 10.39% | $1,957.75 | $2,411.75 |
| SNOW | $248.96 | 5.52% | $219.47 | $245.11 |
| SO | $97.16 | 1.80% | $91.41 | $94.77 |
| SOFI | $17.85 | 5.42% | $16.94 | $18.88 |
| SOUN | $6.41 | 6.51% | $6.66 | $7.58 |
| SOXX | $589.94 | 5.89% | $601.79 | $677.11 |
| SPY | $728.99 | 1.26% | $737.33 | $756.15 |
| TE | $8.21 | 14.32% | $8.01 | $10.69 |
| TEM | $56.14 | 7.10% | $47.23 | $54.45 |
| TER | $436.86 | 8.12% | $402.36 | $473.48 |
| TLN | $404.09 | 6.34% | $408.63 | $463.95 |
| TSLA | $379.71 | 3.93% | $384.75 | $416.23 |
| TSM | $432.35 | 4.69% | $440.45 | $483.79 |
| TTD | $18.37 | 6.06% | $17.39 | $19.63 |
| U | $28.23 | 6.60% | $25.67 | $29.29 |
| UMAC | $19.10 | 11.71% | $22.05 | $27.91 |
| UNH | $427.89 | 2.58% | $390.62 | $411.30 |
| UPST | $33.66 | 7.04% | $30.15 | $34.71 |
| USAR | $20.47 | 8.86% | $22.46 | $26.82 |
| UUUU | $14.62 | 8.39% | $15.17 | $17.95 |
| VRT | $303.95 | 6.51% | $311.37 | $354.73 |
| VST | $163.49 | 5.01% | $155.55 | $171.95 |
| VXX | $23.56 | 4.35% | $21.81 | $23.79 |
| WDC | $586.45 | 9.77% | $673.32 | $819.14 |
| WMT | $115.69 | 2.31% | $114.47 | $119.89 |
| WULF | $25.83 | 9.07% | $26.35 | $31.61 |
(Stock Price : 06/26/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.