옵션 시장은 “이번 주에 가격이 어느 정도 범위로 움직일 수 있는가?”를 내재 변동성(IV)에 반영합니다.
이 글은 2026년 7월 24일 기준(업데이트 기준일 종가)으로 산출된 Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)를 바탕으로, 이번 주의 리스크(변동 폭)를 구조적으로 정리한 자료입니다.
Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)란?
- Weekly Expected Move(±1σ)는 “향후 1주(해당 주 만기 기준) 동안” 가격이 통계적으로 약 68% 확률로 포함될 수 있는 변동 범위를 의미합니다.
- Daily(0DTE)보다 시간축이 길어 이벤트/실적/매크로가 더 반영되며, 종목 특성에 따라 “완만한 추세” 혹은 “급변 후 안정”처럼 다른 형태로 움직일 수 있습니다.
Expected Move 표 읽는 법
- Ticker : 종목 / ETF 티커(symbol)
- Price : 기준 종가(업데이트 기준일 종가)
- % : Weekly 1σ 기대 변동률
- -1σ / +1σ : 이번 주 예상 하단 / 상단 가격 범위
색상 표시 (Sigma Deviation Highlight)
- 현재 가격이 -1σ 또는 +1σ 범위를 벗어나면 색상으로 표시됩니다.
- 파란색 : 가격이 +1σ 위쪽으로 이탈
- 빨간색 : 가격이 -1σ 아래쪽으로 이탈
- 시그마 범위에서 멀어질수록 색상이 더 진하게 표시됩니다.
- 이는 가격이 예상 변동 범위에서 얼마나 크게 벗어났는지를 빠르게 확인하기 위한 시각적 표시
정렬(Sorting) 방법 (% 컬럼 헤더를 클릭)
- % 모드 (% 버튼 상태) → 예상 변동률 % 기준으로 정렬
- σ 모드 (σ 버튼 상태)
→ 시그마 이탈 정도(Sigma deviation) 기준으로 정렬
→ 가격이 예상 범위에서 가장 크게 벗어난 종목을 빠르게 확인
How to Read the Expected Move Table
- Ticker : Stock/ETF ticker symbol
- Price : Reference closing price (close on the update date)
- % : Weekly 1σ expected move (%)
- -1σ / +1σ : Estimated lower / upper price range for the week
Color Highlight (Sigma Deviation)
- When the current price moves outside the ±1σ range, the row will be highlighted.
- Blue : Price is above +1σ
- Red : Price is below -1σ
- The farther the price moves away from the sigma range, the darker the color becomes.
- This visual highlight helps quickly identify stocks that have moved significantly beyond the expected range.
Sorting (You can sort the table by clicking the % column header.)
- % Mode (% button) → Sort by expected move percentage
- σ Mode (σ button) → Sort by Sigma deviation from the expected range
본 표는 매매 신호가 아니라 리스크(변동 폭) 가시화 목적의 참고 자료입니다.
This table is not a trading signal. It is provided for reference only to help visualize risk (expected price range / volatility).
Weekly Expected Move by Sector ETF
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | $180.78 | 3.11% | $170.13 | $181.05 |
| XLF | $56.11 | 1.44% | $55.45 | $57.07 |
| XLE | $58.50 | 2.59% | $56.19 | $59.17 |
| XLV | $160.25 | 1.20% | $159.16 | $163.02 |
| XLI | $178.66 | 1.91% | $175.98 | $182.84 |
| XLY | $114.87 | 2.20% | $112.90 | $117.98 |
| XLP | $84.06 | 1.42% | $83.98 | $86.40 |
| XLU | $44.92 | 1.47% | $44.51 | $45.83 |
| XLB | $50.10 | 1.76% | $49.64 | $51.42 |
| XLC | $110.03 | 1.73% | $108.74 | $112.56 |
(Stock Price : 07/21/2026 Close)
XLK : Technology (기술)
XLF : Financials (금융)
XLE : Energy (에너지)
XLV : Health Care (헬스케어)
XLI : Industrials (산업재)
XLY : Consumer Discretionary (경기소비재)
XLP : Consumer Staples (필수소비재)
XLU : Utilities (유틸리티)
XLB : Materials (소재)
XLC : Communication Services (통신/미디어)
XLRE : Real Estate (부동산/리츠)
Weekly Expected Move by Ticker
| Ticker | Price | % | -1σ | +1σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | $119.26 | 12.12% | $90.00 | $114.82 |
| AAPL | $327.74 | 2.83% | $324.30 | $343.18 |
| ADBE | $227.16 | 4.61% | $226.31 | $248.19 |
| ADI | $382.81 | 6.00% | $352.84 | $397.88 |
| ALAB | $319.79 | 11.93% | $267.40 | $339.84 |
| AMD | $544.43 | 8.64% | $452.93 | $538.59 |
| AMZN | $247.55 | 3.33% | $239.00 | $255.46 |
| ANET | $174.58 | 6.29% | $158.00 | $179.22 |
| APLD | $30.05 | 9.23% | $23.41 | $28.17 |
| APP | $428.69 | 7.16% | $394.14 | $454.94 |
| ARM | $289.73 | 10.36% | $239.51 | $294.87 |
| ASML | $1,801.51 | 5.99% | $1,642.90 | $1,852.26 |
| ASST | $13.00 | 9.04% | $10.79 | $12.93 |
| ASTS | $63.34 | 9.65% | $52.22 | $63.38 |
| AVGO | $386.50 | 5.08% | $351.99 | $389.67 |
| BABA | $117.97 | 4.30% | $110.03 | $119.91 |
| BBAI | $2.94 | 7.99% | $2.61 | $3.07 |
| BE | $226.26 | 14.72% | $183.32 | $246.60 |
| BIDU | $108.22 | 4.75% | $102.15 | $112.33 |
| BLSH | $24.77 | 6.81% | $20.88 | $23.94 |
| BMNR | $17.23 | 7.40% | $14.53 | $16.85 |
| CEG | $262.22 | 4.62% | $240.73 | $264.05 |
| CIEN | $408.73 | 9.23% | $339.85 | $408.97 |
| CIFR | $22.89 | 10.43% | $15.73 | $19.39 |
| CLS | $339.59 | 7.83% | $277.75 | $324.93 |
| CLSK | $15.38 | 8.91% | $11.87 | $14.19 |
| CMCSA | $23.81 | 5.40% | $22.51 | $25.07 |
| COF | $206.22 | 4.70% | $198.25 | $217.81 |
| COHR | $317.22 | 9.58% | $251.01 | $304.19 |
| COIN | $175.85 | 6.93% | $146.23 | $168.01 |
| CRCL | $71.08 | 8.66% | $55.22 | $65.70 |
| CRDO | $223.87 | 10.46% | $181.48 | $223.88 |
| CRM | $170.06 | 4.82% | $162.54 | $179.00 |
| CRSP | $48.15 | 4.89% | $45.44 | $50.12 |
| CRWD | $191.15 | 5.91% | $191.08 | $215.08 |
| CRWV | $79.58 | 9.29% | $66.41 | $80.01 |
| CVNA | $65.58 | 6.50% | $62.96 | $71.72 |
| DDOG | $254.79 | 6.16% | $242.75 | $274.63 |
| DELL | $404.15 | 8.06% | $364.39 | $428.29 |
| DG | $123.20 | 3.38% | $121.50 | $130.00 |
| DUOL | $124.71 | 6.10% | $125.69 | $142.01 |
| ETN | $402.95 | 4.77% | $380.91 | $419.07 |
| FIG | $21.93 | 10.11% | $21.53 | $26.37 |
| GDX | $74.19 | 3.95% | $68.50 | $74.14 |
| GE | $340.70 | 3.37% | $337.07 | $360.59 |
| GEV | $1,078.81 | 8.60% | $966.87 | $1,148.81 |
| GLW | $162.41 | 8.60% | $141.31 | $167.91 |
| GOOG | $346.19 | 5.47% | $327.19 | $365.05 |
| HIMS | $32.73 | 11.60% | $29.03 | $36.65 |
| HOOD | $106.36 | 6.67% | $93.29 | $106.63 |
| INOD | $63.63 | 8.12% | $55.87 | $65.75 |
| INTC | $105.45 | 12.64% | $83.03 | $107.05 |
| IONQ | $35.51 | 8.57% | $31.80 | $37.76 |
| IREN | $41.29 | 12.33% | $29.47 | $37.77 |
| IWM | $296.54 | 1.72% | $288.98 | $299.10 |
| JOBY | $7.66 | 7.65% | $6.68 | $7.78 |
| LAC | $3.06 | 6.40% | $2.76 | $3.14 |
| LAES | $2.59 | 8.19% | $2.33 | $2.75 |
| LITE | $837.56 | 9.88% | $660.42 | $805.22 |
| LLY | $1,175.41 | 3.02% | $1,143.50 | $1,214.72 |
| LMND | $68.62 | 6.67% | $62.70 | $71.66 |
| LRCX | $322.00 | 9.37% | $283.94 | $342.66 |
| LULU | $116.63 | 4.13% | $111.53 | $121.13 |
| LUNR | $14.64 | 9.53% | $12.23 | $14.81 |
| MARA | $12.25 | 8.74% | $9.76 | $11.62 |
| META | $643.81 | 4.35% | $617.91 | $674.11 |
| MP | $46.30 | 6.43% | $42.33 | $48.15 |
| MRVL | $207.96 | 9.01% | $171.68 | $205.68 |
| MSFT | $397.75 | 3.74% | $379.09 | $408.55 |
| MSTR | $101.95 | 7.56% | $87.68 | $102.02 |
| MU | $970.82 | 10.38% | $760.83 | $937.07 |
| NBIS | $216.92 | 14.43% | $152.07 | $203.35 |
| NEE | $87.93 | 3.33% | $85.84 | $91.76 |
| NFLX | $68.67 | 3.49% | $66.54 | $71.36 |
| NNE | $17.30 | 8.93% | $14.60 | $17.46 |
| NOK | $10.63 | 10.25% | $9.08 | $11.16 |
| NOW | $102.06 | 10.60% | $92.30 | $114.18 |
| NVDA | $207.29 | 4.10% | $194.49 | $211.13 |
| NVO | $49.38 | 3.31% | $48.65 | $51.99 |
| OKLO | $44.13 | 8.60% | $37.57 | $44.65 |
| ONDS | $7.66 | 8.01% | $6.01 | $7.05 |
| OPEN | $4.48 | 7.25% | $4.17 | $4.83 |
| ORCL | $127.05 | 5.95% | $118.89 | $133.93 |
| PFE | $24.94 | 2.66% | $24.38 | $25.72 |
| PL | $23.10 | 8.85% | $20.48 | $24.46 |
| PLTR | $132.66 | 4.97% | $125.80 | $138.96 |
| POET | $8.37 | 10.66% | $6.60 | $8.18 |
| PONY | $6.91 | 7.47% | $6.16 | $7.16 |
| QBTS | $17.80 | 8.48% | $15.31 | $18.15 |
| QQQ | $708.97 | 2.52% | $677.81 | $712.85 |
| QS | $6.05 | 13.28% | $5.08 | $6.64 |
| QUBT | $8.22 | 8.82% | $7.11 | $8.49 |
| RBLX | $52.50 | 6.17% | $48.49 | $54.87 |
| RCAT | $8.59 | 9.70% | $6.90 | $8.38 |
| RDDT | $185.84 | 6.18% | $169.98 | $192.38 |
| RDW | $9.42 | 8.17% | $7.76 | $9.14 |
| RGTI | $15.28 | 8.52% | $12.91 | $15.31 |
| RKLB | $69.12 | 8.85% | $61.64 | $73.60 |
| SERV | $5.38 | 8.29% | $4.67 | $5.51 |
| SHOP | $123.03 | 5.44% | $116.84 | $130.28 |
| SMCI | $25.50 | 7.91% | $22.27 | $26.09 |
| SMR | $8.71 | 8.65% | $7.05 | $8.39 |
| SNDK | $1,589.40 | 15.10% | $1,150.24 | $1,559.40 |
| SNOW | $271.73 | 5.64% | $253.73 | $284.07 |
| SO | $93.85 | 1.94% | $93.45 | $97.15 |
| SOFI | $17.64 | 5.36% | $16.35 | $18.21 |
| SOUN | $6.56 | 7.26% | $5.81 | $6.73 |
| SOXX | $552.69 | 6.41% | $488.36 | $555.26 |
| SPCX | $123.54 | 7.06% | $115.24 | $132.74 |
| SPY | $748.28 | 1.38% | $733.03 | $753.55 |
| TE | $6.10 | 13.07% | $5.08 | $6.60 |
| TEM | $48.98 | 7.09% | $48.75 | $56.19 |
| TER | $374.04 | 9.52% | $291.67 | $353.05 |
| TLN | $366.14 | 5.92% | $350.33 | $394.41 |
| TSLA | $378.93 | 6.03% | $357.88 | $403.80 |
| TSM | $424.61 | 5.24% | $377.50 | $419.24 |
| TTD | $18.25 | 5.87% | $17.50 | $19.68 |
| U | $29.87 | 6.44% | $27.12 | $30.86 |
| UMAC | $19.53 | 9.73% | $15.28 | $18.58 |
| UNH | $436.35 | 2.83% | $414.03 | $438.15 |
| UPST | $29.27 | 6.80% | $27.50 | $31.52 |
| USAR | $15.80 | 8.23% | $14.36 | $16.94 |
| UUUU | $12.35 | 7.62% | $10.61 | $12.37 |
| VRT | $304.50 | 7.87% | $266.77 | $312.35 |
| VST | $162.33 | 4.84% | $147.92 | $162.96 |
| VXX | $21.37 | 5.40% | $21.27 | $23.69 |
| WDC | $548.39 | 10.71% | $426.11 | $528.33 |
| WMT | $110.39 | 2.30% | $111.61 | $116.87 |
| WULF | $19.87 | 9.62% | $16.41 | $19.91 |
(Stock Price : 07/21/2026 Close)
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Expected Move 데이터는 주 2회 정기 업데이트됩니다.
- Weekly Expected Move: 매주 금요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Daily Expected Move: 매주 목요일 장 마감 후 업데이트
- Price(종가): 매 거래일 장 마감 후 업데이트
Expected Move data is updated twice per week on a regular schedule.
- Weekly Expected Move: Updated after market close every Friday
- Daily Expected Move: Updated after market close every Thursday
- Price (Close): Updated after market close on each trading day
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 목적이며, 투자 판단 책임은 사용자 본인에게 있습니다.
This content is provided for informational purposes only, and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.